Very little has changed in a week. Notice the green index at the bottom of the chart. Again, prior to an acceleration to the upside, friends of the Fed load up on bullish derivatives ahead of time.  Usually, before the market launches there are multiple articles in the media outlining reasons why doom is just around the corner. This is to draw in short sellers to fuel the advance when the trigger is pulled. Those news stories are missing going into the trading week.  Again friends of the Fed participate in return for advance information. To participate they must make a profit. They will not take any risk.

When they cannot profit even when the Fed helps them they will cut and run. The market will crash. I know this is mostly a repeat of what I have already said.

The market will not drop as a result of supply slowly rising above demand. That kind of drop can be managed and it is often orchestrated as a way to draw in short sellers. If a fast drop occurs, it may continue.  The lack of etf volume is an indication that friends of the Fed are having trouble staying in the black. This has been a long standing feeding frenzy, so they won’t cut and run just because they take a one or two day loss. They will cut and run when they ascertain that there is no more profit to be extracted out of the unaware.

The free money for helping the Fed actually started during the Reagan Administrated and has continued to the present with very little interruption. The central economic planning also started during the Reagan administration and has continued to the present also. It is a testament to the free market philosophy that it has taken this long to destroy the system.  But, it has been destroyed and there will be hell to pay.

Again, the crash can occur on any day but there is only a low probability that it will happen on a given day. The potential consequences are to great to justify holding long positions. The market does look much more vulnerable than it has in a long time. We still cannot rule out the chance that central banks will just start buying outright with newly created unearned money. I am still holding a pile of cash and own just a few bearish 3X etfs. Sorry I can’t be more precise. I know my limitations and that alone has saved my neck more than once.

There is a good chance the European markets will start to tank prior to the U.S. markets. Keep an eye on that.