The causes of a recession are rooted in imbalances, usually in the form of government interventions, built up for years and in this case over decades. Looking at current inflation data reveals very little.
Government policy prevents small recessions. This is what creates imbalances in addition to those which are already present due to natural influences. Accumulated imbalances are then resolved in the form of one big depression.
Every country in the world is out on a limb economically. Each limb is being sawn off.
I place the probability of a worldwide depression at 100%.
Only free market forces are capable of launching an economic recovery. All countries have destroyed their free market forces.
There will be no economic recovery in our lifetimes.
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