Anything else is on an if then basis. The elite – or Deep State, is desperate. All of the wars for profit being fought on their behalf are now exposed for what they are. Belligerence is the only tool they have ever had.  The attempt to assassinate Donald Trump blew up in their faces. Following the failed attempt on Trump’s, life they are in big trouble. There is no telling what they may try next. Are they finished trying to take Trump out?  It doesn’t appear that they are. Suppose that the media suddenly started engaging in more honest reporting. That would be a sign the Deep State has decided to take the loss and perhaps regroup over the following four years. If this happens, the election will go on mostly unaccepted.

The U.S. security agencies will not provide any utility to them for the immediate  future. As soon as one of the three letter acronyms is mentioned, the public mind goes to cover up or something else. The public is more worried about the trouble the security agencies might get them into than any appreciation of safety they are charged with providing. This time the FBI is unable to help determine the outcome of any election. They are under too much scrutiny.

Election fraud is expected, therefore, there won’t be any.

Conventional wisdom is that social media is the big powerful influence. It will have little to no influence at all. The public is dead to it. Those who use it, take it with a grain of salt. It has lost its shine. No one is intrigued by it anymore. It will never be the way it was. Whoever counts on it to win an election will lose. Anyone who walks neighborhoods will win.

If the stock market, which is all that is left to the economy…. crashes, the Deep State loses all of its power. Politicians, then, will be able to speak words other than those dictated by the elite.  If it crashes before the Democratic convention, Trump will be on the ticket, he hasn’t already been taken out by the time it does.

Strategically, if Trump suddenly dies of a stroke or something, Vance has shown some Deep State sympathies, so, he would serve their purposes. Their preference though, is most likely Greg Abbot. Whoever ended up replacing Trump would get a big sympathy vote and couldn’t possibly lose.

There is enough support for Robert Kennedy Jr. that he could actually win in November. He is the only candidate who can claim he had nothing to do with creating the troubles from which the country now suffers. If Trump stays alive until November, Kennedy has a good chance of upsetting him. That is, of course, contingent upon the stock market crashing. Also, the country must be in a state of misery based on failed policies from the past.

The biggest obstacle in the way of reasoning right now is conventional wisdom. What was assumed relevant in the last presidential election is no longer is.