“I can tell you this. Anytime the averages are sitting on a long term trendline that everyone is focused on, watch out for the short squeeze. Watch out for the news announcement. The time will come when all of this stops working. All I can say today is; expect a stunt or a series of them ….because it will happen.” Impending Stock Market Stunt, Aug 28, 2023
“From now until mid October, expect repeated all appearances to indicate that the uptrend line on the head and shoulders is about to give way. With respect to stock market manipulation, our betters only run a hand full of plays. This has been going on for at least two decades. That is all they need, knowing that all others view the financial markets as mostly pristine though, influenced by Fed policy and a few other things. What this accomplishes for our betters is to draw in shorts and wear them out with ominous looking market patterns. The whip them hard. Keep whipping them and watch them cover.” Fall Stock Market Manipulation Update
My thoughts back in August were that the H&S pattern that was developing back then looked like it was about to break to the downside. Well, it did, but not in a meaningful way. The question here is , with all of the agenda driven doom and gloom financial forecasts, have our betters drawn in enough shorts to spark a rally. I haven’t seen the news flow and public discourse as subdued as it is now since right prior to 911. It is like the new mollified, docile and compliant mindset that has been nurtured and adopted in the United States, has some unanticipated complications its creators never anticipated. Now, they can’t get the public excited about anything. Now they can’t the get public excited about anything. Ho Hum 2000s
The stock market has gone exactly sideways for a year. Volume minus intra day trades is incredibly light. Buybacks are still heavy but limited to a few big players.
Yes, I still expect a stunt, probably next week. However, I don’t expect it will produce anything close to a new bull leg up. Take a look at the last chart, NBI. Notice the big red candle as the acceleration down continues. The Russell 2000 looks similar. Generally before a sustained general decline, the smaller indexes falter. When the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ finally generate some long black candles., I think we have seen the highs for years to come. Actually, at these levels, black candles with modest volume are more negative.
The public has a somewhat large presence currently. Yields are still rising, and folks are still parked in IRAs. The bag holders are firmly in place.
I don’t think our betters will be able to save the market this particular October. I think the best they can do is manage a controlled correction and I am not sure they can manage that. It may serve them best this time to get properly situated and let it drop. Let the sheep get sheared, wait until the grow new coats of wool. That could be years away.
Dow 30 Head and Shoulders
NASDAQ Biotechnology NBI