Category Archives: Economic Theory

Forecasts Economics vs Astrology

My personal forecasts are generally right on target. Unfortunately, they are no good for timing. For a decade, I have been forecasting a devastating depression with no recovery. Permanent Depression

When the Federal Reserve speaks. folks listen with open ears. Why? Below is what economists and astrologers are forecasting. As 2026 moves along, let’s see which is more accurate. I am not a fan of astrology. I could just as well quiz a boy scout.

Lets see who gets it right most often, economists or astrologers.

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Biggest AI Losers

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Who loses the most with AI? Great sympathy is displayed to those who are replaced by robots. The biggest losers are never mentioned. What about the news media?

I tried an experiment in a number of AI search engines, with the following inquiry. What is the latest on the Venezuela situation? I got everything being reported. I tried the same thing with local news and got even better results. So, who needs to watch CNN or FOX? As it is, the same folk who own the media, also own government. Likely, those kinds are expecting AI to function for their benefits. Continue reading →

Why Can’t Economist Solve Economic Problems?

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Why Can’t Economist Solve Economic Problems.pdf

Collective action creates economic problems. Government policies constitute collective action. Never in all of history has any government solved an economic. Economist’s way of thinking matters not where government economic policies are concerned. This is because governments only make political decisions. Sound economic decisions require economic decisions. Government doesn’t make economic decision because it is impossible for government to do so.

Shrinking Merchandise Trade Deficit Significance

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Shrinking Merchandise Trade Deficit Significance.pdf

That concerns me greatly. A large trade deficit means that there is prosperity in our population. We have surplus money to spend and a lot of it is buying goods from other countries like China. What do the Chinese do with their profits? They either spend it on what our service economy offers or they invest in our capital markets. That balances our capital account and everything is even.

Here is the problem. Much of our service sector has been bolstered politically. At the same time services the Chinese have always been interested in are waning in utility for them. They are buying less of our services or plan on buying less.

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Will Less Inflation Prevent a Recession

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The causes of a recession are rooted in imbalances, usually in the form of government interventions, built up for years and in this case over decades. Looking at current inflation data reveals very little.

Government policy prevents small recessions. This is what creates imbalances in addition to those which are already present due to natural influences. Accumulated imbalances are then resolved in the form of one big depression.

Every country in the world is out on a limb economically. Each limb is being sawn off. Continue reading →

Will AI Prevent a Recession?

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No, given that so far, AI has only been used as a mechanism to herd the population. AI will increase the productivity of labor. So far, AI is not being employed in ways that will accomplish that, outside of freeing up human capital to be used in other capacities.
To be of value over all, AI must be used to produce something for which there is demand for. Reaching the point of technology overkill is a distinct possibility. If that is the case, those who have invested in it are out on a limb

Tariffs

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Tariffs.

Tariffs PDF

Tariffs are taxes on the overall population. The U.S. is broke. Consumer prices are skyrocketing. Individual citizens are the only entities which have any true income, or for that matter any genuine assets. In order to survive, the government must find ways to bleed what is left in resources out of the general population. The only other solution is to start closing Federal Agencies or cutting salaries of Federal employees.

Tariffs can be described as a benefit, and guess what? A huge portion of the population can be duped into believing that they are. I have this saying. Never trust a politician, billionaire or broadcaster, Tariffs work against you, despite what these types say.

How is this possible in a democracy? As I say, democracy is the wrong system for a people who trust leadership. Americans hang on every word coming out of the mouths of the powerful. It is as simple as that. Add to that a number of misguided myths that purvey the national consciousness, as follows. here are a few. Continue reading →

Ways to Close the Wealth Inequality Gap

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Ways to Close the Wealth Inequality Gap PDF

Ronald Reagan set the precedent first by embracing the Full Employment act of 1978 – which changed the economy from free market…. to planned. Since that time, the rich have done the planning. All administrations since have followed Reagan’s lead. It has been nothing but deficit spending and money printing ever since. The rise of the government -made billionaires followed.

Ronald Reagan was the first president to tamper with the financial markets following the crash of 1987.

Ronald Reagan’s programs have been followed by the creation of the huge wealth gap we have today. It was about normal when he took office. Even today, after all of the damage done, Reagan is still held out as the perfect icon of a conservative

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Wealth Redistributing in the USA

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Wealth Redistributing in the USA PDF

iven the current mentality of U.S. citizens, it can’t be done. As long as voters trust their leaders, folks will just have to wallow in their misery. Democracy only benefits a population which does not trust its government. If this was not the case, there would be no point in having a democracy or a republic.

As long as citizens trust their leaders , a few will use government as a means of drawing wealth in their direction. So, with wealth disparities and a population that views government as their friend, there will be more disparities to come.

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Why Official Anti-Inflation Programs Fail

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Why Official Anti-Inflation Programs Fail PDF

This is because government serves as a place where smart people go to wrench what they want out of others, who believe it is being used for its intended purpose.

No entity that is heavily in debt like government is going to fight inflation. Official anti – inflation efforts are all talk. Without inflation, the U.S. will go the equivalent of bankrupt. Inflation is a way to tax you because lawmakers will never suggest taking more out of your paycheck.

Lower interest rates and inflation increases. Raise interest rates and the government can’t service the enormous debt it has accumulated.

This problem cannot be solved. We get problems like this because U.S. Citizens trust their government. The founding fathers didn’t trust government. They probably never fathomed that their posterity would. Americans are about to find out why they didn’t.